I cannot recall a time when I have seen so much good news and, at the same time, so many bad predicted outcomes of the good news.
I am not sure if it is a sign of the times (just lots of world political and financial uncertainty and a coming U.S. election, for example), or whether there is a truly underlying core of real trouble to actually be worried about.
As you know, I am a realist. Underlying cores of anything are the tools of losers. Any data can yield an endless list of "what ifs" or "buts." The realist in me listens to all that is said and written about a situation and then looks at the actual, current situation unfolding.
For me, the actions always speak louder than the words. The actions are the on-the-record-can't-change'em-facts, real people doing real things in real time. It is not a matter of what might be, it is what is!
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Now, I am not going to get into a philosophical discussion here today, but I am going to point out a few important facts for you to think about over the next six to eight weeks, as the holidays unfold.
[Editor's Note:Special Report: If You Could Buy Just One ETF For The Next 12 Months]
Fact One: GDP is growing at a fairly decent rate (reported this past week in the advanced GDP for last quarter of 3.9 percent growth) and has grown for a good number of months. Oh yes, I know there is lots of verbal doubt aimed at the numbers, but I have not seen anyone — anyone — clearly and decisively prove the numbers wrong. The claims can be anything, but show me exactly how the number is wrong and I will be the first to applaud you.
Fact Two: Employment is strong and stays strong. And, again, yes I know that these numbers are called phony and bogus and lots of other names, but the actual fact is that employment is up, unemployment is down and the follow-on proof is the fact that personal income continues to climb at a very healthy rate and that does not happen unless payroll checks are being issued on a broad scale across the economy — period! And, again, I have not seen anyone — anyone — clearly and decisively prove the numbers wrong. You got numbers? Show me and I will applaud.
Fact Three: The dollar is down and exports are up — in fact at a +16 percent rate year-over-year as reported last week. Now, I have heard a lot of talk — I repeat talk — that says it is a very bad move to let the dollar stay as low as it is. Yet, all the talk is centered on inflation being the big bad-guy. Again, show me the numbers — just the numbers, not a lot of talk about what is coming or might happen or what the numbers miss, or what history proves.
History, it has been said, proves that no country can have a low valued currency and survive economically very long. Really? I think the facts say China did that, as well as a number of other smaller countries that have pegged their currency well below the dollar for years! The facts don't seem to support the premise, as I see it.
Fact Four: Consumers continue to be buyers. While there are ups and downs each month, the facts show that consumers continue to buy at a near 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent increase per month. These are numbers that come from business and cannot be refuted. They represent real dollars being spent on real goods and services by real people every day.
I could easily go on for several pages of fact after fact that says IN REAL TIME we are doing quite well, thank you. But, you say, the news still points to bad stuff coming. I think I recall reading that here and there all last year and into the middle of this year. Had I not invested because of the "what ifs," I would have missed a 3,000-point rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Real numbers and my SUPER CHART said to buy, and so I never changed my urgings to you. Thank you, but I will just keep looking at the Dow and the S&P at the close of every day's trading activity, and when they begin to truly break key supports, THEN let's take some money off the table, as they say.
I posted my measure for these truly key supports for you last week when I included my SUPER CHART of the Dow showing that my SUPER CHART KEYLINE is still quite a distance below the current Dow reading. (If you want to read that article, go to my archive at MoneyNews.com and to the menu at Expert's Corner.)
The SUPER CHART says it all. If that big red KEYLINE is broken to the downside, yes, then, I will get you out. I trust the SUPER CHART, which goes back to 1965 and has not let me down yet. That's a real fact!
And, yes, I'll keep you up to date. So, relax. Go to Starbucks, or a good movie, or just give your loved ones a hug and kiss. It is truly the little things in life that are really important. I'll let you know if there is work to be done.
Now, before I go today, I want to call your attention to some words of wisdom that I ran across this week from no less than Sam Zell of Equity International, one of the most powerful and successful companies in the world.
Mr. Zell made a point that I think you should take the time to look into carefully. (I will be paraphrasing him here, so give me a little room. If I included all his quoted remarks on this subject, we'd be here for another 20 minutes.) Mr. Zell makes several points that need to preface his conclusion, a conclusion that I heartily agree with.
First, he says, that the words "investment grade" have for the foreseeable future been sullied and it will take lots of time to renew confidence in any investment that carries that moniker.
He goes on to say that there is now a need to look to other venues for that "investment grade" kind of cash return — investments that have solid, unimpeachable assets behind them and a solid, measurable cash flow to support a good pay out of cash (it would be called dividends if these assets were bonds).
With that lead-in, he then said paper has lost its ability to attract big money. Big money now wants hard assets. There is gold, of course, and other metals, but these lack the needed cash flow benefits. All of them are capital-appreciation oriented. So, they don't fill the bill.
What does, he asked, rhetorically? Bricks and mortar, bricks and mortar. He said that much of the private real estate in the world is just that, private bricks and mortar.
But, the owners of these private properties are slowly beginning to actively explore the world of "monetizing" (that was the word he used) their holdings and using the cash flow from the real estate as payout to attract big money to the shares of stock representing the hard asset, cash-producing real estate.
Now, this real estate idea is nothing new to the stock market, but the emphasis toward real estate property going public is something that has been only very recently noticed (again) by Wall Street. (I can't imagine why. Could it be they are looking for something to take the place of the tarnished "investment grade" paper that they have so long championed?)
A final note on Zell's comments: A good place to begin your investigation of property will be in the new issue markets, and don't limit yourself to just American properties. Zell points out that many countries are just now getting serious about "monetizing" their real estate.
He stated that in Germany alone only about 3 percent of all private property that would qualify for monetizing are presently public. That leaves a lot of room for all of us incomers, just in that market!
Well, that's all for today. I do hope your coming investment week is a good one. In the meantime, you keep in touch. I do! See you next week.
Editor's note:
Special: Sir John Templeton Was Right. Get His Latest Insight on Housing and Markets.
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Special Report: If You Could Buy Just One ETF For The Next 12 Months
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