Come On Already! It’s Not That Bad!

I would like to ask your kind indulgence today. I want to do a little "rockin' chair" philosophizing and some "over a cup of tea" commenting on what can only be called the din of information flooding our ears today about the future financial health of us all.

Accept my thanks in advance and I do hope it might even spur you to reflect on it a bit by yourself.

With over 40 years in this business, I've see a lot of strange things happen in my business. I remember the late 1960s when everybody and his brother wanted to be a stockbroker (I got in the business in 1967, so I was one of them).

And I remember 1974 when the stock market took its most serious dip since the 1929 crash. You couldn't make money as a broker unless your father was a zillionaire and gave you all his business.

And I remember the early 1980s when supply-side economics arguments set some brokerage offices on fire, as investors began to think maybe Reagan might just revive the economy.

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And I remember the drop of over 500 points in the Dow in one day in 1987 — with the Dow sitting at only 2300 — that brought the end of the brokerage business as we knew it then. Huge consolidations were required that obliterated almost 100 of the well-known regional and national brokerage firms.

And I remember the decline of 1990-91, when the fear of another 1987 crash seemed all too real. And then there was the onset of the gigantic rally that started in late 1994 and didn't end until the huge bust in 2000.

Everyone said this rally was different, it would go on forever. There were new economic rules in place, they said. Of course, there were not.

And I guess I could name a few more memorable events during those 40 years if I thought about it, but these are enough to make my point here. One thing that is certain in this business is that there will always be some sort of crisis cropping up to test the patience and resolve of investors.

It reminds me of the old saying, "Politics requires 'constant crisis' or the politicians become superfluous." Hmm.

[Editor's Note: Special Report: 5 Ways to Profit From the Housing Bust.]

In all this, I have learned one important thing about crisis. Some investors will just fold up, sell out, and run for the hills, as they say. Some will just walk about in a fog not really realizing that a problem even exists. They are fair game for the unethical broker that soon strips their account clean by overtrading it to the max.

But, fortunately, I have also learned that there will always be that percentage that keep a cool head and lead the way to more solid ground for everybody. It is those I want to focus on today, the thinkers that refuse to believe there is no way out, but chaos.

The closest our economy ever came to total wipeout was in 1929. Yes, that was nearly the end of our country, as we knew it, let alone the end of the stock market concept.

But, world events and several strong politicians (this time they were truly relevant) combined to reestablish our confidence that we could indeed handle world-shaking events and come out on top.

Granted, it took a war that was truly worldwide to put the exclamation point on it, but mankind did come out on top. And that set in motion decades of world economic growth, the likes of which the world had never before seen.

Today, we are once again facing the rise of some tough financial problems. Some of them were inevitable, such as the clash of cultures sparked by the homogenization of information flows, due to the incredible communication revolution, one that is connecting people to people, as some call it.

Others are the direct result of just plain old greed and avarice. But, as the deep problems from these and other world changes begin to see the light of day, there are again, thank God, leaders emerging who are unafraid to tackle the difficult and overcome the impossible.

The way you spot these leaders in the forefront of the battle is by the volume of the ridicule of their suggestions to solve problems.

One example, aimed at reducing financial pain to the economy and getting its share of ridicule is the suggestion to freeze interest rates for as many as 1 million homeowners who face the reset of their adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans, now referred to deridingly as subprime loans.

[Editor's Note: Cash and Banks at Risk? Protect Your Wealth Now.]

Now, I am not here to judge this or any other suggestion, I just want you to hear the idea and hopefully you will be spurred to find out more about it yourself.

In the case of the freeze, the idea is to help forestall a potentially huge number of foreclosures that could harm the stability of home values of all of us by thrusting millions of homes onto the market.

By slowing the rate of reset it is hoped that many of these loans can be restructured over two to four years instead of all of them during the next nine months, and hopefully preventing many foreclosures. I won't get into it more than that, as the print and electronic media is full of pros and cons. But I do like the thrust of easing the foreclosure problem by spreading it over time.

And then there is the suggestion that a fall into financial chaos all around the world is inevitable. Some talk of the collapse of the world's financial system.

Some, less stridently, talk of a depression not unlike the 1929 period. And some just opine that "dark days" are ahead of us.

In response to these predictions, some commentators — including yours truly — look to the current events taking place day by day and say that, unless there is some much more drastic blow currently not on anyone's financial radar, we will likely see none of the above.

Will we have problems? Of course, we will. But good heads are already at work diligently working out potential fixes to these problems. Above, I have cited only two of dozens of fixes being explored.

Hopefully, it is being recognized by the majority of members of the worldwide financial community that such explorations contribute to the dialogue that could, piece by piece, help "muddle us through," as the well-known financial manager and commentator John Mauldin puts it.

Look, I don't know all the answers to the problems out there and neither does any other one man or woman, however they want to characterize their comments or opinions.

But this I do know, if we are really serious about correcting the flaws in our financial world, we will carefully study the suggestions being put forth by the many that are trying to lead us out of the dark into a better understanding of how to strengthen our world financial economies.

In the meantime, I will repeat what I have told you every week for umpteen weeks, my Super Chart has a long way to go before we can seriously say that the economic condition confronting us is recession or depression.

I have relied on my Super Chart for over 36 years and it has never failed me. Once or twice it reversed for a small loss, but it always spoke the truth of the market's direction. And, as of today, it is telling me that the bull market that began in 2003 is still intact.

In other words, we are okay! And until you hear me say that we have just confirmed a major market turnaround, expect the markets to continue to head higher over the long term, albeit sometimes in a bit of turbulence.

Well, thanks for giving me a bit of leeway into today's column to opine "over a cup of tea." I just wanted to let you know that all is not lost. The good heads out there are winning their — and our — cause. And I do hope your coming investing week is a good one. Meantime, you keep in touch. I do! See you next week.

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